August Nonfarm Payrolls Ambiguous, Policy Direction After September Rate Cut Remains to Be Seen
Gold Finance reported that the August nonfarm payrolls data has drawn the attention of both hawks and doves, making the Federal Reserve's policy direction for the fall highly uncertain. A 25 basis point rate cut in September is almost a certainty, but the situation becomes more complex after that. The ambiguous nonfarm report does not change the Fed's inclination to start cutting rates at the September meeting. However, it doesn't provide much clarity about what might happen next – neither does it indicate that a soft landing is a sure thing, nor does it suggest that the rapid deterioration of the labor market necessitates aggressive action from the Fed. Two more employment reports will be released before the November meeting. The June dot plot projected only one rate cut in 2024, but the September dot plot may show more rate cuts, although not necessarily in line with market expectations. The employment, inflation, and economic growth data in October will be crucial in determining the next steps.