Bank of America: Current Market Response to a 50bp Fed Rate Cut Seems to Follow Either a "Soft Landing" or "Panic Cut" Scenario
Bank of America's prominent strategist, Hartnett, points out that the current market reaction to a 50 basis point Fed rate cut appears to be following a "soft landing" or "panic cut" script. The US stock and credit markets are digesting expectations of a 250 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025, coupled with an 18% earnings growth for S&P 500 index constituents. "Risks are not getting any better, so investors are forced to chase" gains, and "bubble risk" is making a comeback. In his latest report, Hartnett explains that the reason for this frenzied rally is that when there is no panic (at least not yet), Wall Street prefers "panic rate cuts." Meanwhile, the Fed hopes to cut rates by 50 basis points so that real interest rates can fall from their highest levels this century, preventing job cuts in the already recessionary small business sector. (Jin Shi)