Weekend Macro Review: Fed Boldly Kicks Off Rate Cuts With 50bps, Trump Allegedly Targeted In Another Assassination Attempt
This Week's Macro Events:
1. Fed Boldly Initiates Rate Cuts with a 50bps Move
The Federal Reserve kicked off its rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis point reduction, marking the first time the US has lowered rates since March 2020. The dot plot indicates further cuts of 50 basis points this year, followed by another 100 basis points next year. Governor Bowman, however, voted to lower rates by only 25 basis points.
JPMorgan correctly predicted the Fed's 50 basis point cut this week. Michael Feroli, the firm's chief US economist, maintains that another 50 basis point cut is likely in November, although the outcome hinges on the upcoming employment report. Goldman Sachs believes the Fed's threshold for further significant rate cuts is low, given that the latest expectations for unemployment and PCE are very close to current levels. The bank predicts an additional 75 basis point cut for the year.
2. Alleged Assassination Attempt on Trump
On September 15th, a shooting incident occurred near the golf club owned by former US President Donald Trump in West Palm Beach, Florida. Law enforcement sources report that agents discovered a man with an AK-47 rifle near Trump's golf course. The Secret Service subsequently engaged in a firefight with the suspect, firing at least four shots. However, it remains unclear whether the suspect fired back.
Responding to a community user's query on "X" (formerly Twitter), Elon Musk replied with a "thinking" emoji to the question, "Why would they try to assassinate Trump?" Meanwhile, US Vice President Kamala Harris expressed concern about the potential assassination attempt on Trump.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 14th came in at 219,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a revised previous reading of 231,000.
4. Trump's First Bitcoin Transaction
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump purchased a cheeseburger using Bitcoin at the PubKey Bar in New York City, marking his first known Bitcoin transaction. Trump hailed it as a "historic moment."
The PubKey Bar's official "X" account confirmed the news, stating that the transaction took place at block height 861871. Trump subsequently distributed burgers to bar patrons, calling them "crypto burgers."
Earlier this week, Trump helped launch World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance project being developed by his family members.