UBS expects the Bank of England to maintain its bank rate unchanged with a 7-2 vote, with Dhingra and Ramsden voting for a cut. “It is highly likely that the Bank of England will stop active gilt sales in the next fiscal year to reduce the balance sheet in a more gradual manner.” UBS continues to expect the Bank of England to cut rates again in November and pause in December. However, UBS has adjusted its 2025 expectations, now expecting 150 basis points of rate cuts to 3.25% by the end of 2025, compared to 3.00% previously. UBS currently expects quarterly rate cuts to continue until August 2025 (previously expected to start in May 2025 and reach 3.00% by December 2025) before the start of a series of consecutive rate cuts. UBS points out that due to recent changes in energy prices, it now expects overall inflation to only return to 2% in October 2025, rather than early 2025. (Jin Shi)