ChainCatcher reports that Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to vote 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the policy wording may see a dovish adjustment, hinting at possible action in November.

“Considering all data since August, and the scale of current restrictions, we believe the market should price in a slightly higher chance of a rate cut in September. Even so, we don't see the probability of a cut exceeding 30%.” Morgan Stanley predicts a £100 billion QT for the Bank of England next year, up from the previous forecast of £900 billion, but still believes the risk is skewed towards a lower figure. “November is the key meeting for the Bank of England this year, and we expect it to lay the groundwork for a faster pace of rate cuts as the disinflationary momentum in service prices strengthens. We expect rate cuts in November and December, taking the bank rate to 3.25% by next August.”