Goldman Sachs: Expects Bank of England to Hold Rates, Sees Faster Cut to 3%
Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to vote 7-2 to keep interest rates unchanged, without clear guidance on future paths. The APF is expected to reduce holdings by £100 billion. A series of interest rate cuts from November 2024 to August 2025 is projected to bring rates to 3.00%, with a 40% probability in this base case scenario. This is an earlier projection than the previous estimate of reaching 3.00% by August 2026. Goldman Sachs highlights three reasons for adjusting their outlook: increased confidence that wage growth will cool significantly in the coming months, the possibility of inflation accelerating significantly in 2025, the simple Taylor rule pointing towards faster normalization, and the fact that most developed central banks will be cutting rates in a series.