Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to vote 6-3 in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged. However, policy language could see a dovish shift, hinting at potential action in November. “Given all the data since August, and the scale of the current restrictions, we think the market should be pricing in a slightly higher probability of a September cut. But even then, we don't think the probability of a cut is above 30%.” Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England's QT for next year to be £100 billion, up from their previous forecast of £900 billion, but still sees the risk skewed toward lower. “November is the key meeting of the year for the Bank of England and we expect it to lay the groundwork for a faster pace of rate cuts as disinflationary pressures in services prices gather pace. We expect rate cuts in November and December, taking the Bank Rate to 3.25% by August next year.” (Gold Ten)