CICC: The Likelihood of a Soft Landing for the US Economy in the Short Term Will Further Increase
ChainCatcher reported that, according to a research report by CICC, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points reflects a more aggressive stance. The monetary policy statement highlighted that recent inflation data has increased policymakers' confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Fed's actions indicate that its reaction function has shifted entirely from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment.
We believe this signals a low tolerance for rising unemployment, with officials unwilling to risk jeopardizing the "soft landing" scenario. Based on Powell's statements, we believe any unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% could trigger further rate cuts. This also suggests that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance until job market data stabilizes. Looking ahead, the Fed's more aggressive rate cuts increase the likelihood of a soft landing in the short term.