September Fed Dot Plot Institutional Analysis Summary: Three Total Rate Cuts Expected in 2024
September Fed Dot Plot Analysis:
1. Royal Bank of Canada: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points. This is higher than the previous median expectation in the dot plot of 25 basis points.
2. Danske Bank: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points, six rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, and no rate cuts in 2026, leading to a final interest rate of 3.00-3.25%.
3. Barclays Bank: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, totaling 75 basis points, and 125 basis points in 2025. This reflects the downward revision in inflation forecasts for this year and next, as well as the significant upward revision in the unemployment rate forecast for this year.
4. Nordea: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points, followed by another 100 basis points in rate cuts next year, for a total of 175 basis points.
5. Bank of Montreal: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, 125 basis points in rate cuts next year, and a potential increase in the long-term or "neutral" level. Some participants anticipate at least 100 basis points in rate cuts this year.
6. Gregory Daco, Economist at EY: The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points, and 100 basis points in rate cuts in 2025. (Gold Ten)