Polymarket Founder and CEO: Prediction Markets Will Ultimately Have a Guiding Impact on Real Life, and Information and Opinion Derivatives Will Emerge
Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said in a “Token2049 Fireside Chat” that on Polymarket, people can bet on the outcome of events and see the probabilities of the future world in real time. The likelihood of certain "outcomes" will become more measurable and priced. Currently, "outcome tokens" are just rough mathematical models, with a binary win or lose, without leverage. As prediction markets become more popular and more data is accumulated, the future (events) will become more predictable. Prediction markets will ultimately have a guiding effect on real life, for example, people will browse prediction markets to see if their flight tonight will be delayed and prepare in advance. It is worth noting that prediction markets will have derivatives of information and opinions, allowing users to trade risk. Eventually, all future event data can become part of the predictions, allowing people to fully express their views. We are also trying to figure out how to put more personal "questions" on Polymarket in the future.