Wall Street analysts anticipate a cautious approach to the first Fed rate cut.

"I hope they cut by 50 basis points, but I'm guessing they'll cut by 25," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "They've achieved full employment and inflation has returned to target, a funds rate of around 5.5% is too high. So, I think they need to normalize interest rates quickly and there's a lot of room to do so."

Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies, said: "The tightening, although it seems effective, hasn't quite worked the way they envisioned, so easing should be seen as similarly uncertain." "Therefore, if you're unsure, don't rush," said former Dallas Fed President Kaplan, "I'm guessing they're divided."

"From a risk management perspective, there are still some members who just want to be more cautious," said Seema Shah, analyst at Principal Global Investors. Ultimately, for the Fed, it's about deciding which risk is greater: reigniting inflation pressure with a 50-basis-point cut or potentially triggering a recession with a mere 25-basis-point cut. Having been criticized for being too slow to react to the inflation crisis, the Fed might take a passive approach to the risk of recession, rather than being proactive. (Gold Ten)