If the Fed's Opening Moves Are Conventional, Record Bets on "Big Moves" Will Face Huge Losses

Article is form Jinse
September 17, 2024
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Gold Finance reports that if Federal Reserve officials choose to open the curtain on rate cuts with a standard approach, then record-breaking bets could result in significant losses for traders. Data aggregated by the media shows that trading activity in October federal funds futures, used by investors to bet on Wednesday's decision, has surged to the highest comparable level since the contracts were introduced in 1988. These new bets are largely betting on the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points. Data shows that these positions have surged this week. Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Societe Generale, said this leaves the market extremely vulnerable to selling pressure if the Fed cuts rates by a smaller amount and Jerome Powell delivers a gradualist message. "If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points instead of 50, the market reaction will be much stronger," she said. "The narrative around positioning, optimism, a looser financial environment, etc. could be tested."

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