US August Retail Sales Release, Fed Rate Cut Probability at 67%
Data released on Tuesday showed that US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, suggesting the US economy remains on solid footing for most of the third quarter. Institutional analysts said that the US retail sales data is unlikely to have a major impact on the FOMC's policy report this week. The market has been debating how much the Fed will cut interest rates. As signs of a slowing labor market emerge and inflation falls to the Fed's 2% target, the market has leaned towards pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed is 67%, while the probability of the Fed choosing a smaller 25 basis point cut is 33%. (Jin Shi)