Investment Bank: European Central Bank's Rate Cut Pace May Be Slower Than Market Expectations, Potentially Cutting Rates Quarterly

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September 16, 2024
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Strategists at Barclays and Danske Bank say the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate cuts could be slower than the market expects. They suggest the ECB might lower rates quarterly, instead of at each meeting from December to June. Danske Bank says the ECB will target sticky inflation, while Barclays believes the ECB might opt for a lower terminal rate, achieving it through a more gradual easing period. Rohan Khanna, Barclays' head of euro rates strategy, wrote, "The market may again more seriously consider the possibility of the ECB only opting for quarterly rate cuts next year." Piet Christiansen, Danske Bank's chief strategist, points to high wages driving domestic inflation pressures as the reason behind policymakers opting for a quarterly pace of rate cuts. The bank expects the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter until September next year.

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