Citi: Trump and Harris Political Platforms Both Unfavorable for US Stocks, Investors Focusing on Factors Beyond Election Vote

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September 16, 2024
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Citigroup strategists say that the political platforms of both Trump and Harris appear to be negative for U.S. equities, with the Democratic candidate's plan to raise corporate taxes having the greatest impact. Scott Chronert, an analyst at the firm, said that Harris' plan would lower the fair value of U.S. stocks by 4% to 6%. Meanwhile, the impact of the Republican candidate's proposed policies is estimated to be between 0% and negative 4%. Strategists say that Trump's plan would trigger the largest hit to the U.S. fiscal deficit, which is expected to be a major issue going forward. Trump has pledged to lower the federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, while Harris has proposed raising the rate to 28%. Goldman Sachs strategists estimate that the U.S. election could have a significant impact on S&P 500 earnings, with Trump's tax cuts boosting profits and Harris' plans cutting them. Citigroup says that overall, investor sentiment towards a soft landing, Federal Reserve actions, and tailwinds from artificial intelligence are having a greater impact on U.S. equities than the November 5th vote. (Gold Ten)

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