Interest rate derivatives traders are now predicting that the benchmark interest rate will fall to around 2.75% by the end of next year, down from about 5.25% currently. This equates to ten interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each, a move the Fed would likely only take in the face of a recession. Although few on Wall Street are predicting a recession anytime soon, most agree that the risk of one is now higher than it was a few months ago. (Gold Ten)