According to Golden Finance, interest rate derivatives traders are now expecting the benchmark interest rate to fall to around 2.75% by the end of next year, down from around 5.25% currently. This equates to ten rate cuts of 25 basis points each, a move that the Federal Reserve would likely only take in the event of a recession. While few on Wall Street are predicting a recession anytime soon, most agree that the risk of one is now higher than it was a few months ago.