Markets Bet on Fed Cutting Rates Significantly, Dollar Weakens
Mars Finance News, September 16: The US dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday as traders increasingly leaned towards a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. The dollar's decline boosted major currencies like the Japanese yen, which hit its highest level since July 2023.
After weeks of debate over whether the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points to kickstart its easing policy, traders are now favoring the latter option. Futures prices tied to the Fed's interest rate decision this week show a 58% probability of a 50 basis point cut, compared to a 50/50 chance late last Friday.
"We think the Fed is about to enter a new easing cycle, which is a negative for the dollar," said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank. "The dollar will start its cyclical decline as the Fed loosens monetary policy next year, taking the funds rate down to neutral, even below neutral." (JinShi)