UBS: US Retail Sales Data May Impact Fed Rate Cut, Expect 100bps Cut This Year
Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, US retail sales data, known as the "horror data," will be released. UBS said they are closely watching retail sales and industrial production data, as weak numbers could influence the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25. UBS stated that US inflation has already slowed to a point where rate cuts are warranted. The institution outlined their "base case" expectation, which is for the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points for the rest of the year and another 100 basis points in 2025. UBS added that the dollar will continue to weaken and gold will rise further as the pace of rate cuts accelerates. (Gold Ten)